A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
